The CEIC Smoothed Leading Indicator for the Chinese economy was 93.4 in April 2019, declining for 13 months in a row from its peak of 112.3 in March 2018.
After the slight increase in January 2019, the unsmoothed CEIC Leading Indicator declined to 91.3 in April 2019, which was its lowest level since February 2015. Economic activity has been steadily losing momentum since its peak in February 2018.
The smoothed data further suggests that the economic turning point was most likely the end of 2016 and that the expansion between Q4 2017 and Q1 2018 was more of a temporary event.
The unprecedented volume of credit and money supply reflect the government’s strong determination to re-activate the economy and the capital market
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